Posted on

To Be Or Not To Be…..

“To be, or not to be, that is the question”. This is a very famous statement by Prince Hamlet from William Shakespeare’s play ‘Hamlet’. Though am not very well versed with Shakespeare’s work, this is his very famous statement for anyone to know and I find a unique relevance of this statement with the current status of the investors’ mind. And that is – To be (in equity) or not to be (in equity). And, of course, they have very solid reasons to be in such a dilemma. 

Now you may question why only equity. That’s because, barring those who love the asset class and the ones who have been investing in equity since long time, all others had come invested in equity just recently because of the falling fixed deposit rates, flat real estate market and lacklustre gold (till recent past). These are all new to the asset class and not experienced enough to know the nuances of the same. For them, before the equity markets could deliver as per their expectations, it crashed so much that it sent shivers down their spine. Thats not all. The market movement since mid of this February is a perfect example of a virtual roller coaster ride. We saw new all time highs, precipitous fall from those highs reaching a trough and a sudden bounce back of more than 30% from that trough. This will obviously leave anyone bewildered. The volatility that we are seeing in the markets is like never before. It increased to as high as 84% Vs the normal 14-15%. This is making the investors nervous as well as confused. So what’s happening exactly and what exactly is to be done?

The first case of Covid-19 was found in USA in the middle of January which slowly spread to Europe later. As this Corona crisis started unfolding globally in large numbers, financial markets too started reacting strongly from middle of February as they fell by 35%-40% by end of March. As the situation became more precarious, central banks across the world swung in to action by cutting interest rates to as low as sub-zero levels and declaring huge stimulus packages one after another. In the last 6 weeks, US’ Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan together declared stimulus packages of approximately USD 3.5 trillion. They wanted to support the ailing economies and companies through these steps. However, due to extreme risk averseness, part of liquidity that got created out of this went in to the financial markets taking them up between 20%-30%.

With so much of ups and downs, investors are perplexed. In addition to this, experts have been telling to take advantage of the discount sale in the equity markets while media running all kinds of stories saying how the crisis is affecting different sections of the economy and society thereby deeply. And they may be correct when looked from their point of view. However, this is quite confusing even for a seasoned investor.

So then what should one focus on? How to steer our way amidst such commotion of news and views? Below are some pointers that may guide you towards your destination-

  • First and the foremost, you should be clear about your financial goals and the expected value of each goal in the year in which they fall
  • Plan your investments in a way that these goals will be met considering reasonable expected rate of return and the tax thereon
  • If you have limited source of income, you should strictly follow the rule of Income (-) Investments = Expenses. Else, it can derail your dreams at the time when they fall which can be very painful
  • Asset allocation is the key. It’s nothing but the mix of major assets like debt, equity, gold and real estate in your entire portfolio. Studies have shown that right mix of these deliver optimum and consistent returns. However, the right mix varies person to person depending upon the risk profile and the financial situation
  • Getting the right mix of assets and sticking to it passively doesn’t help. One needs to be active enough to shuffle the portfolio when assets perform very well or very badly (depending upon the outlook), when the goals are nearing and at times like today. Thus, if the proportion of equity in your portfolio is less than what you planned because of the recent fall, you may want to add to it in a planned manner. Similarly, if you are over invested in an asset class, you may want to shift part of it to other assets

In this journey, you may have to take help of a financial expert if you are not aware of the gaps in between, selection of the right product within the asset classes and the nuances thereof. However, broadly, if one follows the above said, he or she will be able to at least evaluate if things are going in the right direction and get the answer to the question of whether to be or not to be.

Your MoneyPal

Kaustubh Wadekar

Posted on

A new beginning in the unprecedented times

​Hello dear friends and well-wishers!

On this auspicious day of Akshayya Trittiya, I wish you all abundant and inexhaustible joy, success, prosperity, hope and peace. 

“Akshayya” (अक्षय्य) means ‘never endingness’ or ‘that never diminishes’. Astrologically, this is that divine day which is considered auspicious by Hindus and Jains in many regions of India for new projects/ventures, marriages, expensive investments such as in gold or other property and any new beginnings. This was the day on which Lord Krishna transformed the bowl gifted by Lord Surya to Yudhishthir into Akshaya Patra, making it  invincible, for Draupadi, the wife of the five Pandavas, so that the magical bowl would always remain full with food of their choice, even as to satiate the whole universe, if required. Also, it is believed that Kubera received his wealth and position as the ‘Lord of Wealth’ on this auspicious day. On this very day, Mother Ganga descended on Earth as well as Lord Parshuram, the sixth incarnation of Lord Vishnu appeared on the Earth.

So naturally, no other day than Akshaya Trittiya could have been better for me to reach out to you and scores of other people to whom I can be of some help when it comes to money matters. Through this blog, I intend to have an interaction with you all regarding money matters and all that is related with money with whatever little knowledge I have. This will mostly include economic matters that we come across routinely, incidences with which we may be connected either directly or indirectly, actions which may have an impact on our lives either directly or indirectly or any other economic matter that matters for you. This is a small attempt to decipher the happenings around us affecting our financial lives.

Though I planned to initiate this long back in 2015, when Era Wealth Management started its operations, it was probably destined to start in these unprecedented times. Time, which probably no one of us would have ever experienced or expected. Time, which has come with its own positives and negatives. Time, whose exact impact can be judged by hardly anyone. And that time is this Corona time. Time which has pressed the reset button not only for us and Mother Earth but also for itself. Meaning, going ahead, the reference to time is probably going to be reset from BC – Before Christ and AD – Anno Domini i.e. After the birth of Christ to BC – Before Corona and AC – After Corona. Such is the impact of this microscopic virus!

We all very well know the famous advertorial tag line – Jor Ka Jhatka , Dhire Se Lage. This has what precisely happened with all of us. The long lasting impact that Corona is going to have on our lives has been never imagined or thought of. Now when we think of impact, we naturally think of the negative impact first. And that is because we are reading and hearing the negative all through day till night. However, there are many positives too to this event which probably is getting overlooked in the chaos. Positives which we are actually experiencing subtly, which we know about and which can be thought of if we think logically. Positives which are related to us individuals, organizations, countries and Mother Earth as a whole. However, it’s the Mother Earth who will be benefitting the most without losing anything. Because she was the one who was losing big time all these decades. And for us? We got to spend time with our families and attend to our own health. Organisations got hands on experience of working more efficiently. While countries got to know the real friends and foes.

However, for all this, we had to pay a heavy price in the form of economic destruction. Vacant streets, companies closed, cash crunches, no demand for goods except for essentials, crashing financial markets, complex socio-economic scenarios and the list goes on. But there is a silver-lining to it. While our nature is getting cleansed like never before, let’s ponder over how the global economy, particularly Indian economy, will benefit.

The world’s factory, China, is likely to get hit in all this for obvious reasons. And at the same time, one of the world’s major consumption engine, India, could well be next destination as the world’s factory (albeit in a small way initially) and be the beneficiary of this fallout if we handle the matters swiftly and in the right direction. In fact, this is an historic opportunity for India to use this window to correct its macro imbalances. India can use this stimulus to invest in its agri-value chains or to incentivise shifting of manufacturing supply chains locally to create high quality jobs, income growth & establish a stronger foundation for a sustainable growth.  From the countries balance sheet perspective, we are saving tremendously on our oil bill. Crude oil has fallen from USD 70 a year back to USD sub-20s. And every dollar per barrel of reduction in price says roughly Rs. 10,000 crore for India. So just imagine the quantum of money we are likely to save thereby. So though the government’s income will be impacted due to fall in the tax revenues, that will be compensated big time through these savings. Also, as we are net importers (majority being the oil), we are likely to correct the trade deficits positively with other countries in this period.

On the companies’ front, their balance sheets will certainly be affected adversely for some time. However, like for all of us, they would have new normals of operations. They would be more lean on the expenses. Innovative ways of doing businesses will be on rise. There could be altogether new industries and business models coming up. There is cheap money available like never before which will help corporates stabilise and expand sooner than later. So whether it’s from the local financial institutions, financial markets or through foreign channels, money will find it’s way here in the fastest growing market of the world. So though it’s not going to be a smooth ride, things are likely to improve dramatically once the situation stabilises, if the government takes the right steps at the right time.

As the world is not designed to be in the lockdown and that the mankind has always been living in hope of a better future, the world will certainly be a better place to live than earlier. Like we Indians celebrate a new beginning on Akshaya Trittiya, I hope this will be a new beginning for the world too!

Will keep meeting!

Your MoneyPal